Why diabetes modeling?

Diabetes is responsible for a huge and growing clinical and economic burden to both individuals and society. It is of particular concern that the number of people with type 2 diabetes is increasing in every country and 80% of people with diabetes now live in low- and middle- income countries 1.

In an era of limited health care funding, health care decision makers are increasingly concerned to understand the clinical and economic impact of interventions used to manage diabetes. However, the majority of clinical trials and observational studies are conducted over a relatively short time period. Typical durations are in the range of three to 24 months, with a few trials, such as the Diabetes Control and Complication Trial (DCCT) and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), covering timeframes of seven to twelve years or, with regards to respective study extensions, 30 years (EDIC) and 20 years (UKPDS 80), covering longer time frame.

Furthermore, even these long-term studies are not designed to capture genuine long-term outcomes such as mean life expectancy, quality adjusted life expectancy and lifetime costs that are required for health economic evaluation. As a consequence, health economic modelling is employed synthesizes data from disparate sources to extrapolate the clinical and cost consequences of health interventions over time horizons that may cover patient lifetimes. Modelling the costs and outcomes of diabetes interventions helps decision makers to optimize the allocation of healthcare resources.

1. International Diabetes Federation, Diabetes Atlas, 5th edition [29.01.2013]